Paper detail

Estimating the impact of preventive quarantine with reverse epidemiology

The impact of mitigation or control measures on an epidemics can be estimated by fitting the parameters of a compartmental model to empirical data, and running the model forward with modified parameters that account for a specific measure. This approach has several drawbacks, stemming from biases or lack of availability of data and instability of parameter estimates. Here we take the opposite approach -- that we call reverse epidemiology. Given the data, we reconstruct backward in time an ensemble of networks of contacts, and we assess the impact of measures on that specific realization of the contagion process. This approach is robust because it only depends on parameters that describe the evolution of the disease within one individual (e.g. latency time) and not on parameters that describe the spread of the epidemics in a population. Using this method, we assess the impact of preventive quarantine on the ongoing outbreak of Covid-19 in Italy. This gives an estimate of how many infected could have been avoided had preventive quarantine been enforced at a given time.