Paper detail

Dynamics of a producer-parasite ecosystem on the brink of collapse

Ecosystems can undergo sudden shifts to undesirable states, but recent studies with simple single species ecosystems have demonstrated that advance warning can be provided by the slowing down of population dynamics near a tipping point. However, it is not clear how this effect of critical slowing down will manifest in ecosystems with strong interactions between their components. Here we probe the dynamics of an experimental producer parasite ecosystem as it approaches a catastrophic collapse. Surprisingly, the producer population grows in size as the environment deteriorates, highlighting that population size can be a misleading measure of ecosystem stability. By analyzing the oscillatory producer parasite dynamics for over ~100 generations in multiple environmental conditions, we found that the collective ecosystem dynamics slows down as the tipping point is approached. Analysis of the coupled dynamics of interacting populations may therefore be necessary to provide advance warning of collapse in complex communities.