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Diffusion in small time in incomplete sub-Riemannian manifolds

For incomplete sub-Riemannian manifolds, and for an associated second-order hypoelliptic operator, which need not be symmetric, we identify two alternative conditions for the validity of Gaussian-type upper bounds on heat kernels and transition probabilities, with optimal constant in the exponent. Under similar conditions, we obtain the small-time logarithmic asymptotics of the heat kernel, and show concentration of diffusion bridge measures near a path of minimal energy. The first condition requires that we consider points whose distance apart is no greater than the sum of their distances to infinity. The second condition requires only that the operator not be too asymmetric.