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Detecting a trend change in cross-border epidemic transmission

A method for detecting a trend change in cross-border epidemic transmission is developed for a standard epidemiological SIR compartment model and a meta-population network model. The method is applicable to investigating the efficacy of the implemented public health intervention in managing infectious travelers across borders from a time series of the number of new cases reported in multiple geographical regions. It is found that the change point of the probability of travel movements was one week after the WHO worldwide alert on the SARS outbreak in 2003. The alert was effective in managing infectious travelers. On the other hand, it is found that the probability of travel movements did not change at all for the flu pandemic in 2009. The pandemic did not affect potential travelers despite the WHO alert.

preprint2015arXivOpen access
Yoshiharu Maeno
physics.soc-phPopulations and Evolution
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Open access1 author2 topics
Imported metadata coverageMissing code, dataset, citation and institution fields are tracked without dominating the paper.Details
Citations: 0Reviews: 0Saves: 0Code: not linkedDataset: not linkedInstitutions: 0

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Yoshiharu Maeno

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