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Detailed $β$ spectrum calculations of $^{214}$Pb for new physics searches in liquid Xenon

We present a critical assessment of the calculation and uncertainty of the $^{214}$Pb $\to$ $^{214}$Bi ground state to ground state $β$ decay, the dominant source of background in liquid Xenon dark matter detectors, down to below 1 keV. We consider contributions from atomic exchange effects, nuclear structure and radiative corrections. For each of these, we find changes much larger than previously estimated uncertainties and discuss shortcomings of the original calculation. Specifically, through the use of a self-consistent Dirac-Hartree-Fock-Slater calculation, we find that the atomic exchange effect increases the predicted flux by $10(3)\%$ at 1 keV relative to previous exchange calculations. Further, using a shell model calculation of the nuclear structure contribution to the shape factor, we find a strong disagreement with the allowed shape factor and discuss several sources of uncertainty. In the 1-200 keV window, the predicted flux is up to 20$\%$ lower. Finally, we discuss omissions and detector effects in previously used QED radiative corrections, and find small changes in the slope at the $\gtrsim 1\%$ MeV$^{-1}$ level, up to $3\%$ in magnitude due to omissions in $\mathcal{O}(Zα^2, Z^2α^3)$ corrections and $3.5\%$ uncertainty from the neglect of as of yet unavailable higher-order contributions. Combined, these give rise to an increase of at least a factor 2 of the uncertainty in the 1-200 keV window. We comment on possible experimental schemes of measuring this and related transitions.