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Collective Decision Dynamics in Group Evacuation: Modeling Tradeoffs and Optimal Behavior

Quantifying uncertainties in collective human behavior and decision making is crucial for ensuring public health and safety, enabling effective disaster response, informing the design of transportation and communication networks, and guiding the development of new technologies. However, modeling and predicting such behavior is notoriously difficult, due to the influence of a variety of complex factors such as the availability and uncertainty of information, the interaction and influence of social groups and networks, the degree of risk or time pressure involved in a situation, and differences in individual personalities and preferences. Here, we develop a stochastic model of human decision making to describe the empirical behavior of subjects in a controlled experiment simulating a natural disaster scenario. We compare the observed behavior to that of statistically optimal Bayesian decision makers, quantifying the extent to which human decisions are optimal and identifying the conditions in which sub-optimal decisions are made. Finally, we investigate how human evacuation strategies change when decisions are made in groups under a variety of different rules, and whether these group strategy adjustments are optimal or beneficial.