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Coherence of Supermassive Black Hole Binary Demographics with the nHz Stochastic Gravitational Wave Background

We present a refined estimation of the stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) based on observed dual active galactic nuclei (AGNs) together with AGN X-ray luminosity functions, in light of recent Pulsar Timing Array detections of an nHz SGWB. We identify a characteristic luminosity dependence in dual AGN fractions by compiling recent observational datasets, providing crucial constraints on supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) populations. Our AGN-based model reproduces the current SGWB measurements within PTA observational uncertainties of $2 - 4 σ$ uncertainties, demonstrating consistency between electromagnetic and gravitational wave observations. These findings establish SMBHBs as the dominant source of the nHz gravitational wave signal, providing crucial insights into their demographics and evolution.

preprint2026arXivOpen access

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