Paper detail

Cliophysics: A scientific analysis of recurrent historical events

Named after Clio, the Greek goddess of history, cliophysics is a daughter (and in a sense an extension) of econophysics. Like econophysics it relies on the methodology of experimental physics. Its purpose is to conduct a scientific analysis of historical events. Such events can be of sociological, political or economic nature. In this last case cliophysics would coincide with econophysics. The main difference between cliophysics and econophysics is that the description of historical events may be qualitative as well as quantitative. For the handling of qualitative accounts cliophysics has developed an approach based on the identification of patterns. To detect a pattern the main challenge is to break the "noise barrier". The very existence of patterns is what makes cliophysics possible and ensures its success. Briefly stated, once a pattern is detected, it allows predictions to be made. As the capacity to make successful predictions is the hallmark of any science, it becomes easy to decide whether or not the claim made in the title of the paper is indeed fulfilled. A number of examples of clusters of similar events will be given which should convince readers that historical events can be simplified almost at will very much as in physics. One should not forget that physical effects are also subject to the environment. For instance, if tried at the equator, the experiment of the Foucault pendulum will fail. In the last part of the paper, we describe cliophysical investigations conducted over the past decades; they make us confident that cliophysics can be a valuable tool for decision makers.