Paper detail

Analysis of the evolution of the Sars-Cov-2 in Italy, the role of the asymptomatics and the success of Logistic model

In this letter we study the temporal evolution of the Sars-Cov-2 in Italy. The time window of the real data is between February 24 and March 25. After we upgrade the data until April 1.We perform the analysis with 4 different model and we think that the best candidate to describe correctly the italian situation is a generalized Logistic equation. We use two coupled differential equations that describe the evolution of the severe infected and the deaths. We have done this choice, because in Italy the pharyngeal swabs are made only to severe infected and so we have no information about asymptomatic people. An important observation is that the virus spreads between Regions with some delay; so we suggest that a different analysis region by region would be more sensible than that on the whole Italy. In particular the region Lombardia has a behaviour very fast with respect to the other ones. We show the behaviour of the total deaths and the total severe infected for Italy and five regions: Lombardia, Emilia Romagna, Veneto, Piemonte, Toscana. Finally we do an analysis of the peak and an estimation of how many lifes have been saved with the LockDown.