Paper detail

Analysis of an SIR--model with global and local infections

An epidemic model where disease transmission can occur either through global contacts or through local, nearest neighbor interactions is considered. The classical SIR--model describing the global interactions is extended by adding additional equations for the density of local pairs in different epidemic states. A locality parameter $p\in [0,1]$ characterizes the probability of global or local infections. The equilibria of the resulting model are analyzed in dependence of the locality parameter and the transmission rate of the pathogen. An explicit expression for the reproduction number in terms of the locality parameter and the disease parameters is obtained. Transient simulations confirm these findings. Neighboring pairs of one infected and one susceptible can be considered as active pairs, since local transmission of the disease can only occur in that situation. Our analysis shows, that the fraction of active pairs is minimal for intermediate values of the locality parameter.