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An Orthogonal Test of the $L$-functions Ratios Conjecture, II

Recently Conrey, Farmer, and Zirnbauer developed the L-functions Ratios conjecture, which gives a recipe that predicts a wealth of statistics, from moments to spacings between adjacent zeros and values of L-functions. The problem with this method is that several of its steps involve ignoring error terms of size comparable to the main term; amazingly, the errors seem to cancel and the resulting prediction is expected to be accurate up to square-root cancellation. We prove the accuracy of the Ratios Conjecture's prediction for the 1-level density of families of cuspidal newforms of constant sign (up to square-root agreement for support in (-1,1), and up to a power savings in (-2,2)), and discuss the arithmetic significance of the lower order terms. This is the most involved test of the Ratios Conjecture's predictions to date, as it is known that the error terms dropped in some of the steps do not cancel, but rather contribute a main term! Specifically, these are the non-diagonal terms in the Petersson formula, which lead to a Bessel-Kloosterman sum which contributes only when the support of the Fourier transform of the test function exceeds (-1, 1).