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An analysis to identify the structural breaks of COVID-19 in Turkey

In countries with a severe outbreak of COVID-19, most governments are considering whether anti-transmission measures are worth social and economic costs. The seriousness of economic costs such as the closure of some workplaces, unemployment, reduction in production, and social costs such as school closures, disruptions in education could be observable. However, the effect of the measures taken on the spread of the epidemic, such as the number of delayed or prevented cases, could not be observed. For this reason, the direct effects of the measures taken on health, that is, the effects on the course of the epidemic, are important research subjects. For this purpose, in this study, the breakpoint linear regression analysis is performed to analyze the trends of daily active cases, recovered, and deaths in Turkey. The analysis reveals that there has been a remarkable impact on lockdown and other precautions. Using the breakpoint regression model, we also analyze the active cases' trajectory for eight affected countries and compare the patterns in these countries with Turkey.