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A Framework for Non-Monotonic Reasoning About Probabilistic Assumptions

Attempts to replicate probabilistic reasoning in expert systems have typically overlooked a critical ingredient of that process. Probabilistic analysis typically requires extensive judgments regarding interdependencies among hypotheses and data, and regarding the appropriateness of various alternative models. The application of such models is often an iterative process, in which the plausibility of the results confirms or disconfirms the validity of assumptions made in building the model. In current expert systems, by contrast, probabilistic information is encapsulated within modular rules (involving, for example, "certainty factors"), and there is no mechanism for reviewing the overall form of the probability argument or the validity of the judgments entering into it.