Abstract
One of the central tools to control the COVID-19 pandemics is the knowledge of its spreading dynamics. Here we develop a fractal model capable of describe this dynamics, in term of daily new cases, and provide quantitative criteria for some predictions. We propose a fractal dynamical model using conformed derivative and fractal time scale. A Burr-XII shaped solution of the fractal-like equation is obtained. The model is tested using data from several countries, showing that a single function is able to describe very different shapes of the outbreak. The diverse behavior of the outbreak on those countries is presented and discussed. Moreover, a criterion to determine the existence of the pandemic peak and a expression to find the time to reach herd immunity are also obtained.
Connections
Explore this paper’s authors, topics and related work.
Building this map preview
BZPEER is loading the nearby papers, people, topics and institutions for this page.
Reviews 0
Write a review
No reviews yet.
Discussion 0
Add a comment
No comments yet.