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Source author record

Dashun Wang

Dashun Wang appears in the imported research catalog. Authorship, coauthor and topic links are available while profile ownership is still unclaimed.

ResearcherUnclaimed source record
physics.soc-phSocial and Information NetworksDigital Librariesphysics.data-anArtificial Intelligencecond-mat.stat-mech

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Published work

13 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Universal Dynamics of Punctuated Progress

Scientific and technological frontiers advance through punctuated dynamics, yet the principles governing these dynamics remain poorly understood. Here we collect and analyze datasets tracking the evolution of frontiers across 9 different domains, spanning materials discovery, structural biology, AI, computational biomedicine, data science, theoretical computer science, Formula-1 racing, and physical wheel building. Analyzing 6.8M solutions to 6.7K tasks, we uncover three universal patterns: (1) waiting times between new frontiers are heavy-tailed, with most attempts concentrated in long stasis; (2) frontier records accumulate at a sublinear rate, faster than logarithmic yet slower than linear growth; (3) record-breaking events are temporally correlated, generating short-term predictability yet long-term unpredictability. Despite the differences in the scale, scope, and definition of the settings, these patterns are remarkably consistent across all domains we study, and are not captured by models from complex systems, record statistics, economics of innovation, and cultural evolution. We trace the missing ingredient to the distinction between radical and incremental innovation, and develop a minimal, analytically solvable model incorporating both radical resets that restructure what is achievable and incremental refinements that exploit the current frontier. The simple model reproduces all three empirical regularities. Remarkably, the leading-order predictions are parameter-independent, identifying a new universality class governing punctuated progress and yielding testable predictions about how openness and access to frontier solutions shape the pace of advance. Overall, these results reveal universal dynamics governing punctuated progress and identify the interplay between radical resets and incremental refinements as the key driver of how scientific and technological frontiers advance.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

See further upon the giants: Quantifying intellectual lineage in science

Newton's centuries-old wisdom of standing on the shoulders of giants raises a crucial yet underexplored question: Out of all the prior works cited by a discovery, which one is its giant? Here, we develop a novel, discipline-independent method to identify the giant for any individual paper, allowing us to systematically examine the role and characteristics of giants in science. We find that across disciplines, about 95% of papers stand on the shoulders of giants, yet the weight of scientific progress rests on relatively few shoulders. Defining a new measure of giant index, we find that, while papers with high citations are more likely to be giants, for papers with the same citations, their giant index sharply predicts a paper's future impact and prize-winning probabilities. Giants tend to originate from both small and large teams, being either highly disruptive or highly developmental. And papers that did not have a giant but later became a giant tend to be home-run papers that are highly disruptive to science. Given the crucial importance of citation-based measures in science, the developed concept of giants may offer a useful new dimension in assessing scientific impact that goes beyond sheer citation counts.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Quantifying Policy Responses to a Global Emergency: Insights from the COVID-19 Pandemic

Public policy must confront emergencies that evolve in real time and in uncertain directions, yet little is known about the nature of policy response. Here we take the coronavirus pandemic as a global and extraordinarily consequential case, and study the global policy response by analyzing a novel dataset recording policy documents published by government agencies, think tanks, and intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) across 114 countries (37,725 policy documents from Jan 2nd through May 26th 2020). Our analyses reveal four primary findings. (1) Global policy attention to COVID-19 follows a remarkably similar trajectory as the total confirmed cases of COVID-19, yet with evolving policy focus from public health to broader social issues. (2) The COVID-19 policy frontier disproportionately draws on the latest, peer-reviewed, and high-impact scientific insights. Moreover, policy documents that cite science appear especially impactful within the policy domain. (3) The global policy frontier is primarily interconnected through IGOs, such as the WHO, which produce policy documents that are central to the COVID19 policy network and draw especially strongly on scientific literature. Removing IGOs' contributions fundamentally alters the global policy landscape, with the policy citation network among government agencies increasingly fragmented into many isolated clusters. (4) Countries exhibit highly heterogeneous policy attention to COVID-19. Most strikingly, a country's early policy attention to COVID-19 shows a surprising degree of predictability for the country's subsequent deaths. Overall, these results uncover fundamental patterns of policy interactions and, given the consequential nature of emergent threats and the paucity of quantitative approaches to understand them, open up novel dimensions for assessing and effectively coordinating global and local responses to COVID-19 and beyond.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Quantifying the Immediate Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Scientists

The COVID-19 pandemic has undoubtedly disrupted the scientific enterprise, but we lack empirical evidence on the nature and magnitude of these disruptions. Here we report the results of a survey of approximately 4,500 Principal Investigators (PIs) at U.S.- and Europe-based research institutions. Distributed in mid-April 2020, the survey solicited information about how scientists' work changed from the onset of the pandemic, how their research output might be affected in the near future, and a wide range of individuals' characteristics. Scientists report a sharp decline in time spent on research on average, but there is substantial heterogeneity with a significant share reporting no change or even increases. Some of this heterogeneity is due to field-specific differences, with laboratory-based fields being the most negatively affected, and some is due to gender, with female scientists reporting larger declines. However, among the individuals' characteristics examined, the largest disruptions are connected to a usually unobserved dimension: childcare. Reporting a young dependent is associated with declines similar in magnitude to those reported by the laboratory-based fields and can account for a significant fraction of gender differences. Amidst scarce evidence about the role of parenting in scientists' work, these results highlight the fundamental and heterogeneous ways this pandemic is affecting the scientific workforce, and may have broad relevance for shaping responses to the pandemic's effect on science and beyond.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Scientific elite revisited: Patterns of productivity, collaboration, authorship and impact

Throughout history, a relatively small number of individuals have made a profound and lasting impact on science and society. Despite long-standing, multi-disciplinary interests in understanding careers of elite scientists, there have been limited attempts for a quantitative, career-level analysis. Here, we leverage a comprehensive dataset we assembled, allowing us to trace the entire career histories of nearly all Nobel laureates in physics, chemistry, and physiology or medicine over the past century. We find that, although Nobel laureates were energetic producers from the outset, producing works that garner unusually high impact, their careers before winning the prize follow relatively similar patterns as ordinary scientists, being characterized by hot streaks and increasing reliance on collaborations. We also uncovered notable variations along their careers, often associated with the Nobel prize, including shifting coauthorship structure in the prize-winning work, and a significant but temporary dip in the impact of work they produce after winning the Nobel. Together, these results document quantitative patterns governing the careers of scientific elites, offering an empirical basis for a deeper understanding of the hallmarks of exceptional careers in science.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2019arXiv

Quantifying dynamics of failure across science, startups, and security

Human achievements are often preceded by repeated attempts that initially fail, yet little is known about the mechanisms governing the dynamics of failure. Here, building on the rich literature on innovation, human dynamics and learning, we develop a simple one-parameter model that mimics how successful future attempts build on those past. Analytically solving this model reveals a phase transition that separates dynamics of failure into regions of stagnation or progression, predicting that near the critical threshold, agents who share similar characteristics and learning strategies may experience fundamentally different outcomes following failures. Below the critical point, we see those who explore disjoint opportunities without a pattern of improvement, and above it, those who exploit incremental refinements to systematically advance toward success. The model makes several empirically testable predictions, demonstrating that those who eventually succeed and those who do not may be initially similar, yet are characterized by fundamentally distinct failure dynamics in terms of the efficiency and quality of each subsequent attempt. We collected large-scale data from three disparate domains, tracing repeated attempts by (i) NIH investigators to fund their research, (ii) innovators to successfully exit their startup ventures, and (iii) terrorist organizations to post casualties in violent attacks, finding broadly consistent empirical support across all three domains. Together, our findings unveil identifiable yet previously unknown early signals that allow us to identify failure dynamics that will lead to ultimate victory or defeat. Given the ubiquitous nature of failures and the paucity of quantitative approaches to understand them, these results represent a crucial step toward deeper understanding of the complex dynamics beneath failures, the essential prerequisites for success.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2016arXiv

Inspiration or Preparation? Explaining Creativity in Scientific Enterprise

Human creativity is the ultimate driving force behind scientific progress. While the building blocks of innovations are often embodied in existing knowledge, it is creativity that blends seemingly disparate ideas. Existing studies have made striding advances in quantifying creativity of scientific publications by investigating their citation relationships. Yet, little is known hitherto about the underlying mechanisms governing scientific creative processes, largely due to that a paper's references, at best, only partially reflect its authors' actual information consumption. This work represents an initial step towards fine-grained understanding of creative processes in scientific enterprise. In specific, using two web-scale longitudinal datasets (120.1 million papers and 53.5 billion web requests spanning 4 years), we directly contrast authors' information consumption behaviors against their knowledge products. We find that, of 59.0\% papers across all scientific fields, 25.7\% of their creativity can be readily explained by information consumed by their authors. Further, by leveraging these findings, we develop a predictive framework that accurately identifies the most critical knowledge to fostering target scientific innovations. We believe that our framework is of fundamental importance to the study of scientific creativity. It promotes strategies to stimulate and potentially automate creative processes, and provides insights towards more effective designs of information recommendation platforms.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2014arXiv

Career on the Move: Geography, Stratification, and Scientific Impact

Changing institutions is an integral part of an academic life. Yet little is known about the mobility patterns of scientists at an institutional level and how these career choices affect scientific outcomes. Here, we examine over 420,000 papers, to track the affiliation information of individual scientists, allowing us to reconstruct their career trajectories over decades. We find that career movements are not only temporally and spatially localized, but also characterized by a high degree of stratification in institutional ranking. When cross-group movement occurs, we find that while going from elite to lower-rank institutions on average associates with modest decrease in scientific performance, transitioning into elite institutions does not result in subsequent performance gain. These results offer empirical evidence on institutional level career choices and movements and have potential implications for science policy.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2014arXiv

Modeling and Predicting Popularity Dynamics via Reinforced Poisson Processes

An ability to predict the popularity dynamics of individual items within a complex evolving system has important implications in an array of areas. Here we propose a generative probabilistic framework using a reinforced Poisson process to model explicitly the process through which individual items gain their popularity. This model distinguishes itself from existing models via its capability of modeling the arrival process of popularity and its remarkable power at predicting the popularity of individual items. It possesses the flexibility of applying Bayesian treatment to further improve the predictive power using a conjugate prior. Extensive experiments on a longitudinal citation dataset demonstrate that this model consistently outperforms existing popularity prediction methods.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2014arXiv

Quantifying Information Flow During Emergencies

Recent advances on human dynamics have focused on the normal patterns of human activities, with the quantitative understanding of human behavior under extreme events remaining a crucial missing chapter. This has a wide array of potential applications, ranging from emergency response and detection to traffic control and management. Previous studies have shown that human communications are both temporally and spatially localized following the onset of emergencies, indicating that social propagation is a primary means to propagate situational awareness. We study real anomalous events using country-wide mobile phone data, finding that information flow during emergencies is dominated by repeated communications. We further demonstrate that the observed communication patterns cannot be explained by inherent reciprocity in social networks, and are universal across different demographics.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2014arXiv

Quantifying Long-Term Scientific Impact

The lack of predictability of citation-based measures frequently used to gauge impact, from impact factors to short-term citations, raises a fundamental question: Is there long-term predictability in citation patterns? Here, we derive a mechanistic model for the citation dynamics of individual papers, allowing us to collapse the citation histories of papers from different journals and disciplines into a single curve, indicating that all papers tend to follow the same universal temporal pattern. The observed patterns not only help us uncover basic mechanisms that govern scientific impact but also offer reliable measures of influence that may have potential policy implications.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2013arXiv

Connections between Human Dynamics and Network Science

The increasing availability of large-scale data on human behavior has catalyzed simultaneous advances in network theory, capturing the scaling properties of the interactions between a large number of individuals, and human dynamics, quantifying the temporal characteristics of human activity patterns. These two areas remain disjoint, each pursuing as separate lines of inquiry. Here we report a series of generic relationships between the quantities characterizing these two areas by demonstrating that the degree and link weight distributions in social networks can be expressed in terms of the dynamical exponents characterizing human activity patterns. We test the validity of these theoretical predictions on datasets capturing various facets of human interactions, from mobile calls to tweets.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2011arXiv

Collective response of human populations to large-scale emergencies

Despite recent advances in uncovering the quantitative features of stationary human activity patterns, many applications, from pandemic prediction to emergency response, require an understanding of how these patterns change when the population encounters unfamiliar conditions. To explore societal response to external perturbations we identified real-time changes in communication and mobility patterns in the vicinity of eight emergencies, such as bomb attacks and earthquakes, comparing these with eight non-emergencies, like concerts and sporting events. We find that communication spikes accompanying emergencies are both spatially and temporally localized, but information about emergencies spreads globally, resulting in communication avalanches that engage in a significant manner the social network of eyewitnesses. These results offer a quantitative view of behavioral changes in human activity under extreme conditions, with potential long-term impact on emergency detection and response.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access